Interweb number crunchers Hitwise have run some interesting analysis of the traffic to and from The Times websites now the pay-wall is in place (even if the 'pay' part is yet to be enforced).
In some respects the Hitwise findings are fairly predictable. The first graph (right) shows that what has inevitably happened is the paper's daily market share has diminished considerably.
Of course it has, that was always going to happen. But what we don't know is whether this is in line with expectations at The Times who will have expected a drop. As soon as you erect any barrier to free and easy access to content promiscuous web users are going to go elsewhere, especially when that content is deemed to be fairly commoditised (who would pay to read a match report from the World Cup, or a news report about the budget, when that information is widely available elsewhere?) The paper will see further decline when the barrier becomes payment, not just registration, but at the moment this doesn't look like the kind of bloodshed some people predicted. The Times is not withering on the vine just yet.
The second piece of analysis supports that commodity notion. Where do people go when they hit the 'paywall'? To rival sites of course.
The upstream sites benefitting most from The Times' new model are unsurprisingly The Independent, The Telegraph and The Guardian. Next, interestingly, is the FT, which you might reasonably argue runs the least commoditised kinds of content in newspaper land but also has a limited registration model.
Despite what looks like a massive up-tick for some of those sites, it's worth noting the axis does deal in 0.2% incremements.
So, based on stats from ABCe what this means, in terms of actual numbers, is since The Times 'paywall' went up, its immediate rivals are adding:
- The Independent - 2,700 extra readers per day
- The Telegraph - 8,900 extra readers per day
- The Guardian - 7,200 extra readers per day
That's 'nice to have' territory, rather than anything more exciting.
So where this leaves us is with a concrete indication that the 'paywall' has had a negative effect on The Times, but not one we could confidently say anybody should be too worried about... yet. I say 'yet' because if I was working for The Times I would be worried about the way this trend could be amplified when the cash factor kicks in.