Remember this...

Remember this (right) from November 2012 - the Daily Express warning us to brace ourselves for the "coldest winter in 100 years". 

Cue the unseasonably wet and mild December we have just experienced, with flood warnings and double-figure temperatures of up to 15°C across the UK.

But despite its unrivalled record for telling us what the weather probably won't be doing The Express last month claimed to be "unmatched on faithful and accurate weather updates". The Express cited its prediction of "Arctic weather" as just one example.

The paper even claimed it had been banned from betting on the weather by bookmaker Ladbrokes because of the accuracy of its predictions.

Gamble

Now we're talking. I like a bet and enjoy seeking out the kind of value that can be found taking on a hotly fancied favourite. So with two-thirds of the winter still to go and all to play for I approached Ladbrokes and asked what odds they'd offer me on The Express - the self-proclaimed "oracles of British weather" - being WRONG.

But it turns out I am not about to get rich, because in betting terms, Ladbrokes currently sees it as a near certainty The Express will be wrong about its big winter weather prediction.

Ladbrokes quoted me odds of just 1/66 that this WON'T be the coldest winter in 100 years. That means to win enough money to buy a copy of The Express I would have to bet £33.  

Ladbrokes caution is wise.

The coldest winter on record was 1962-63 when the UK mean temperature was -0.18°C. So far, according to Met Office figures published this week, this winter has seen a mean temperature of 3.8°C.

Comments

[John]

Everyone remembers the predictions but in time no-one remembers who made them.

I have always felt these wild claims had a hidden agenda - to discredit the Met Office and other official forecasters by creating a general impression that none of them are to be trusted.